This presentation was given at OECD in April 2026. It discusses the development towards a forecast based on the theory presented in my textbook. The forecast is currently limited to the underlying trend, which corresponded well to the forecast given by OECD at the same meeting, which was based on the normal forecasting technique. The next stage is to develop a forecasting technique that models the extreme cyclical behavior of demand.
A teaching session delivered to the 'Mastering Shipbuilding Management Course' at Liverpool John Moores University in June 2025. This session included a detailed overview of commercial shipbuilding trends, an analysis of the long-term demand trend, and the implications of backlog on future prices and output. and the 'productivity journey', leading to discussion of the need for a new shipbuilding strategy. The need for assistance in developing new shipyards was also covered.
Presentation delivered to SNAME / RINA in March 2025 with minor edits. The aim is to begin investigating what disruption might look like in commercial shipbuilding and to start the conversation about what a new shipbuilding strategy could look like.
The UK commercial shipbuilding industry progressed from a global market share of over 80% at the end of the 19th Century to approximately 0 by the end of 1980. Why was that and what lessons can we learn?